The big thaw

Global disaster will follow if the ice cap on Greenland melts. Now scientists say it is vanishing far faster than even they expected

Greenland's glaciers have begun to race towards the ocean, leading scientists to predict that the vast island's ice cap is approaching irreversible meltdown, The Independent on Sunday can reveal.

Research to be published in a few days' time shows how glaciers that have been stable for centuries have started to shrink dramatically as temperatures in the Arctic have soared with global warming. On top of this, record amounts of the ice cap's surface turned to water this summer.

The two developments - the most alarming manifestations of climate change to date - suggest that the ice cap is melting far more rapidly than scientists had thought, with immense consequences for civilisation and the planet. Its complete disappearance would raise the levels of the world's seas by 20 feet, spelling inundation for London and other coastal cities around the globe, along with much of low-lying countries such as Bangladesh.

More immediately, the vast amount of fresh water discharged into the ocean as the ice melts threatens to shut down the Gulf Stream, which protects Britain and the rest of northern Europe from a freezing climate like that of Labrador.

The revelations, which follow the announcement that the melting of sea ice in the Arctic also reached record levels this summer, come as the world's governments are about to embark on new negotiations about how to combat global warming.

This week they will meet in Montreal for the first formal talks on whether there should be a new international treaty on cutting the pollution that causes climate change after the Kyoto protocol expires in seven years' time. Writing in The Independent yesterday, Tony Blair called the meeting "crucial", adding that it "must start to shape an inclusive global solution". But little progress is expected, largely because of continued obstruction from President George Bush.

The new evidence from Greenland, to be published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, shows a sudden decline in the giant Helheim glacier, a river of ice that grinds down from the inland ice cap to the sea through a narrow rift in the mountain range on the island's east coast.

Professor Slawek Tulaczyk, of the Department of Earth Sciences at the University of California, Santa Cruz, told the IoS that the glacier had dropped 100 feet this summer.

Over the past four years, the research adds, the front of the glacier - which has remained in the same place since records began - has retreated four and a half miles. As it has retreated and thinned, the effects have spread inland "very fast indeed", says Professor Tulaczyk. As the centre of the Greenland ice cap is only 150 miles away, the researchers fear that it, too, will soon be affected.

By Geoffrey Leans posted 21 November 05

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Two-thirds of world's resources 'used up'

The human race is living beyond its means. A report backed by 1,360 scientists from 95 countries - some of them world leaders in their fields - today warns that the almost two-thirds of the natural machinery that supports life on Earth is being degraded by human pressure.

The study contains what its authors call "a stark warning" for the entire world. The wetlands, forests, savannahs, estuaries, coastal fisheries and other habitats that recycle air, water and nutrients for all living creatures are being irretrievably damaged. In effect, one species is now a hazard to the other 10 million or so on the planet, and to itself.

"Human activity is putting such a strain on the natural functions of Earth that the ability of the planet's ecosystems to sustain future generations can no longer be taken for granted," it says.

The report, prepared in Washington under the supervision of a board chaired by Robert Watson, the British-born chief scientist at the World Bank and a former scientific adviser to the White House, will be launched today at the Royal Society in London. It warns that:

- Because of human demand for food, fresh water, timber, fibre and fuel, more land has been claimed for agriculture in the last 60 years than in the 18th and 19th centuries combined.

- An estimated 24% of the Earth's land surface is now cultivated.

- Water withdrawals from lakes and rivers has doubled in the last 40 years. Humans now use between 40% and 50% of all available freshwater running off the land.

- At least a quarter of all fish stocks are overharvested. In some areas, the catch is now less than a hundredth of that before industrial fishing.

- Since 1980, about 35% of mangroves have been lost, 20% of the world's coral reefs have been destroyed and another 20% badly degraded.

- Deforestation and other changes could increase the risks of malaria and cholera, and open the way for new and so far unknown disease to emerge.

In 1997, a team of biologists and economists tried to put a value on the "business services" provided by nature - the free pollination of crops, the air conditioning provided by wild plants, the recycling of nutrients by the oceans. They came up with an estimate of $33 trillion, almost twice the global gross national product for that year. But after what today's report, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, calls "an unprecedented period of spending Earth's natural bounty" it was time to check the accounts.

"That is what this assessment has done, and it is a sobering statement with much more red than black on the balance sheet," the scientists warn. "In many cases, it is literally a matter of living on borrowed time. By using up supplies of fresh groundwater faster than they can be recharged, for example, we are depleting assets at the expense of our children."

Flow from rivers has been reduced dramatically. For parts of the year, the Yellow River in China, the Nile in Africa and the Colorado in North America dry up before they reach the ocean. An estimated 90% of the total weight of the ocean's large predators - tuna, swordfish and sharks - has disappeared in recent years. An estimated 12% of bird species, 25% of mammals and more than 30% of all amphibians are threatened with extinction within the next century. Some of them are threatened by invaders.

The Baltic Sea is now home to 100 creatures from other parts of the world, a third of them native to the Great Lakes of America. Conversely, a third of the 170 alien species in the Great Lakes are originally from the Baltic.

Invaders can make dramatic changes: the arrival of the American comb jellyfish in the Black Sea led to the destruction of 26 commercially important stocks of fish. Global warming and climate change, could make it increasingly difficult for surviving species to adapt.

A growing proportion of the world lives in cities, exploiting advanced technology. But nature, the scientists warn, is not something to be enjoyed at the weekend.

Conservation of natural spaces is not just a luxury.

"These are dangerous illusions that ignore the vast benefits of nature to the lives of 6 billion people on the planet. We may have distanced ourselves from nature, but we rely completely on the services it delivers."

By Tim Radford posted 31 March 05

Witch-hunt targets scientists

QLD: SCIENTISTS at the John Tonge Centre are being threatened with jail in the wake of a government hunt for the source of leaks highlighting serious problems in the forensic laboratories.

Queensland Health has ordered a sweeping review of the centre after leaks to The Courier-Mail forced an official admission of problems and sparked a review of the centre.

Sources close to the centre said scientific staff were "furious and close to walking out in disgust" after being told to get independent legal advice and prepare for questioning.

Senior bureaucrats will begin a probe into the leaks.

Scientists have been warned a police investigation is probable and any unauthorised disclosure of information about the troubles at the centre could result in prosecution and imprisonment for two years.

News of the inquiry, which was condoned by Health Minister Gordon Nuttall, was leaked and within minutes of scientists being given formal written notices warning of the ramifications.

"They are upset and feel intimidated," said a source at John Tonge. "They are getting advice on whether they will even turn up. The department wants to include past and present staff in the inquiry."

Scientists met and took advice from the Queensland Public Sector Union before deciding to flatly refuse to participate in any investigation.

Mr Nuttall's office confirmed the probe, describing it as an "internal audit around the information provided to The Courier-Mail".

Mr Nuttall, who has responded to revelations about equipment and accuracy problems and a huge backlog by ordering an external review and starting the outsourcing of scientific testing, yesterday refused to comment on the crackdown.

In a statement, Queensland Health said: "It is usual practice for Queensland Health's internal Audit Branch to investigate any unauthorised release of confidential documents as such actions are breaches of the Queensland Health Code of Conduct."

Staff, who have been heartened recently that public disclosure of the problems is finally leading to some ministerial action, are furious.

"It has a (management) culture that refuses to accept there's a problem a culture where everyone who dares to criticise is written off as an idiot," said Ron Grice, a former senior scientist at the centre.

"Staff are demoralised, traumatised and angry. The backlogs there today are worse than three years ago when I left despite the millions of dollars put into the place. Morale is at an all-time low. I often wonder why the whole place doesn't just implode."

Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg accused the Beattie Government of embarking on a reign of terror "to silence public servants and whistle blowers with legal threats and intimidation".

"Rather than fix the problems and answer the questions, they go out to get even with the people who showed them up," he said. "That's clearly the consequence of raising any concerns about this government they will get even with you and fit you up."

Mr Beattie, who leaked Crown Law advice about himself , told Parliament that he valued "open, accountable and transparent processes", but it was wrong for public servants to leak material.

The leaks inquiry will try to determine who provided The Courier-Mail with an internal document exposing flaws in the testing of human DNA.

By Hedley Thomas posted 30 March 05

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